Is the coronavirus coming back?

Only recently the government made the Dutch happy news about the abolition of masks for passengers at airports and on board aircraft. And now the RIVM (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu - National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) reports an increase in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 coronavirus infection last week: by 64% compared to a week earlier. According to the Minister of Public Health Ernst Kuipers (Ernst Kuipers), the possibility that millions of Dutch people will become infected again after the summer is "very real".

Five Scenarios

Last year, scientists came to the conclusion that we will live with the coronavirus in the coming years, and this will affect both the healthcare system and all areas of society.

The Scientific Council for Public Policy (Wetenschappelijk Raad voor het Regeringsbeleid, WRR), together with the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen, KNAW), proposed five scenarios to develop long-term measures to counter the coronavirus:

• Scenario 1. Return to normal life: people stop getting sick with COVID-19.

• Scenario 2 – Influenza+: COVID-19 becomes endemic with recurring seasonal outbreaks.

• Scenario 3 – External Threat: The virus is under control in the Netherlands and the EU, but there is a constant threat of introducing new virus mutations from abroad.

• Scenario 4 – Ongoing struggle: COVID-19 remains a major threat, vaccines work temporarily, new options emerge that vaccines can’t handle.
• Scenario 5: COVID-19 becomes more dangerous, the pandemic claims more lives every year and continues to spread around the world.

Minister Ernst Kuipers calls for the development of separate plans for the prevention of coronavirus for each sector of the economy and public life in accordance with the scenarios presented above. In many industries, such plans have already been prepared. The sphere of culture, the catering industry and retail trade remain in uncertainty. What action should they take and when? Is it possible to count on compensation from the state?

For most Dutch, fundamentally important points remain incomprehensible:

• According to which of the scenarios are events developing now?
• What are the criteria for this? The number of hospitalizations or something else?
• What measures to prevent coronavirus are currently in priority?

Statistics

The increase in the number of confirmed cases of infection with coronavirus COVID-19 by 64% in a weekly interval correlates with the growth in the number of patients with coronavirus symptoms. However, an increase in the number of cases of infection does not lead to a significant increase in the number of hospitalizations (an increase of only 12%).

Coronavirus infection is observed in all age groups. The number of nursing home residents who test positive for corona is also not growing too fast. It should be taken into account that the number of confirmed infections does not give a complete picture of the total number of cases of coronavirus, since many use rapid tests at home and do not seek medical help.

Sub-options BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron

Epidemiologist Susan van den Hof from RIVM believes that the number of infections is currently growing "very rapidly". According to her, a new corona wave can be observed, and this is caused by sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5 of the micron variant of the virus. They spread more easily than the previous options.

“How high this wave will be and how long it will last, how it will affect hospitalization, is now very difficult to say,” says Van den Hoof. She points out that these variants are less likely to become seriously ill, in part because of vaccinations and previous exposures. “But if a lot of people get sick, then the number of hospitalizations will still increase,” emphasizes the epidemiologist.

According to Van den Hoof, it is important that people themselves take measures to prevent the spread of infection. “Everyone is responsible. Therefore, the most important thing is to stay at home with complaints and get tested to prevent infecting other people.” At the same time, an increase in the number of corona cases is also observed in other countries. In the United States, another sub-variant of omicron is being diagnosed.

Government Plans

A spokesman for the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports says that tougher measures cannot be ruled out as the virus is unpredictable. If events develop according to a gloomy scenario, then again there will be a need for vaccination. “We will ensure that we have a stockpile of vaccines until at least 2023,” says in a government announcement.

In the event of a new wave of corona, the government will be forced to close schools and kindergartens again. But this is only as a last resort. If this is not enough, for example, checking the vaccination status of visitors to catering establishments, protective screens in stores, and so on will be used again. The Cabinet of Ministers does not rule out the widespread use of COVID-certificates again.

At the moment, the corona variant predominates, which causes relatively few complications. But the government acknowledges that the next option could be very different: “The emergence of new variants of the virus has taught us that we must prepare for the unpredictable course of the pandemic.”

So, with a high probability, the government is gradually bringing us to the introduction of restrictive measures again. At least by the autumn it is worth being ready for this.